Strategic Panorama Published by the National Institute for Strategic Studies the Strategic Panorama is an academic specialized publication in political sciences The National Institute for Strategic Studies en-US Strategic Panorama 2616-9460 DESTABILIZING EUROPE: RUSSIA’S HYBRID WARFARE <p><strong><em>The</em></strong> <strong><em>E</em></strong><strong><em>uropean</em></strong> Union is in a political and security crisis. The crisis tends to become existential, which undermines the future of the EU as an integration project. The conflict of values between liberal democracy and authoritarianism is becoming an important factor in international security.</p> <p>Negative current trends in the international security environment increase risks for the EU. In its foreign policy the EU does not demonstrate the ability to speak with one voice. It does not support EU’s ambition to be a global international actor. Within the EU, centrifugal tendencies and Euroscepticism appear to be gaining ground. Among the destructive external and internal factors affecting European security, the hybrid threat posed by Moscow’s ambitious plans and aggressive actions is at the forefront. These actions are aimed at undermining democracies, international solidarity and security. Russia is systematically acting to destabilize the EU, using a set of means of destructive influence, trying to undermine European unity both externally and internally.</p> <p>Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, operations in Syria and Libya, interference in domestic processes in the EU, etc., are exacerbating destructive trends in the European security environment. In this con- text, the EU faces the need to increase its resilience, as a tool to deter destructive actions of the Russian Federation and a means to mitigate their effect.</p> <p>The purpose of the article is to analyze the causes and consequences of Russia’s &nbsp;hybrid influence against the EU, plus to identify the means of Russia’s destructive impact, such as the spread of misinformation, active special operations, energy pressure, etc.</p> <p>The article examines the imperatives of Russian foreign policy, the impact of the value crisis on the European project and its future, as well as obstacles to strategic dialogue between the EU and Russia.</p> <p>Europe returns to searching for its collective European identity, discussing revitalization of the global European narrative. Maintaining a system of liberal democratic values is a key precondition for the future of the EU in order to avoid the risk of disintegration of the European Union.</p> <p>Sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, its national security could be guaranteed only by full-fledged integration into the European political, economic and security space. Europe’s hesitations regarding the European perspective for Ukraine, which arise under pressure from the Kremlin and internal contradictions in the EU, negatively affect the security environment &nbsp;in Europe.</p> Borys Parakhonsky Galina Yavorska Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1-2 5 29 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.01 ESSENTIAL FEATURES AND FUNCTIONAL COMPONENTS OF MODERN UNCONVENTIONAL (HYBRID) CONFLICT <p><strong><em>I</em></strong><strong><em>n</em></strong> <strong><em>the</em></strong> <strong><em>article </em></strong>the authors argue that the strategy and arsenal of hybrid (asymmetrical, unconventional) warfare in the contemporary world are fundamentally based on the qualitative changes that took place at the turn of the XXI century as a result of radical changes in the balance of power in the international arena, chaos in international relations, the development of new types of lethal and non-lethal weapons, new technologies of constructing and dismantling social communities with predetermined characteristics. These changes involved the conceptual framework, structure, strategy and tactics, forms and methods of the military and political confrontation between modern states and their blocks, as well as between states and non-governmental organisations.</p> <p>The authors identify the essential features and functional components of hybrid warfare, such as its latency phases; the remote undermining of national defense capabilities by non-military and non-contact means; breaching the international law of war; the integrated use of military methods as well as specific means of non-military, diplomatic, financial and economic, humanitarian pressure on a victim state. They also include the extensive use of anti-government groups and movements; illegal armed groups, separatists, irredentists, radical ethnic and religious groups, extremist organizations, and artificially constructed destructive groups; the privileged role of intelligence services, special operations forces and their use for engineering a powerful anti-government infrastructure designed to destabilize the legitimate state system; the priority role of targeted influence on public opinion through the extensive use of methods of information and psychological warfare and cyberwarfare.</p> Dmytro Viedienieiev Oleksandr Semeniuk Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1-2 30 47 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.02 TRANSNISTRIAN SETTLEMENT: UKRAINE’S CONTRIBUTION AND EXPERIENCE FOR DEOCUPATION OF DONBAS <p><strong><em>The</em></strong> <strong><em>article</em></strong> addresses the role of Ukraine in the Transnistrian settlement. The author analyses its peacekeeping experience and plans for further steps in the light of Ukraine's national interests in the context of Russia's ongoing aggression. Other countries’ roles as participants in the peace process are also considered.</p> <p>This conflict should not be classified as an interethnic or interfaith one, just as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is a geopolitical confrontation with a minor ethnic component. The positions of the parties do not differ fundamentally on ethnic or confessional grounds, but consist in worldview differences, geopolitical orientation of elites and the population of the two banks of the Dniester.</p> <p>Russia, which had been a de facto participant in the hot phase of the conflict, managed to take over the role of the mediator. Ukraine and Moldova agreed on the legal personality of the Transnistrian occupation authorities. Countries where separatist conflicts have been provoked by external forces cannot agree to negotiate directly with the occupation administrations of the ‘separatist’ areas. They should negotiate directly with the independent players who have provoked, provided this conflict and are able to make &nbsp;decisions.</p> <p>It is important to conduct an effective awareness-rising campaign in Transnistria and the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, create highly professional alternative media and a high-quality information product. Russia's continued military presence in Transnistria is becoming an additional security threat to Ukraine and the Black Sea region.</p> <p>The ‘peacekeeping’ mechanism needs to be reformatted and internationalized by withdrawing the Russian contingent and deploying the International Civilian Observer Mission. Such operations should be carried out either with the participation of contingents of exclusively neutral countries, or with multinational contingents if possible, which will guarantee their impartiality. Findings of the present study may be used as the groundwork for formulating Ukraine’s strategy of countering the Russian aggression and retrieving the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.</p> Ihor Lossovskyi Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1-2 48 64 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.03 ETHNIC INTOLERANCE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE SPREAD OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: CHALLENGES AND CONTROL MEASURES <p><strong><em>The</em></strong> <strong><em>article</em></strong> identifies the main ethno-political challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, which had global consequences for the level of social cohesion and social stability, as well as the pace of further sustainable development at the international and national levels. The global COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on human rights worldwide and has led to growing social inequality and discrimination against individual minority communities, as well as to the conflict potential of ethnic/racial relations in societies through the spread of ethnic xenophobia and intolerance.</p> <p>The article aims to analyze the main trends of interethnic intolerance during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukrainian society and to identify public policy approaches to ensure domestic political stability and social cohesion in the field of interethnic relations. The article analyzes the manifestations of the main tendencies of the coronavirus pandemic influence on the state of ethnic groups in the Ukrainian society, the level of ethnic tolerance and the manifestations of interethnic intolerance. The article concludes that despite a growing trend of xenophobia towards ethnic groups, no significant increase in hate crimes has been registered in Ukraine. However, shortcomings of the legal framework negatively affect the ability of the authorities to effectively register and confront the manifestations of ethnic intolerance at the national level.</p> <p>The article also analyzes the influence of socio-economic instability on the manifestations of xenophobia and the perceived/real threat of discrimination based on ethnicity. The author defines the need to overcome socio-economic inequality of vulnerable minority groups, which is an important component of state policy of sustainable development in the post-COVID period. The article also considers the risks of spreading interethnic prejudices and hate speech in the domestic information space, their impact on the state of interethnic relations in Ukrainian society, social consolidation for sustainable development of Ukraine.</p> Vladyslava Bakalchuk Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1-2 65 70 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.04 MIGRATION AND CORONACRISIS: CONSEQUENCES, PROSPECTS, DIRECTIONS OF RESPONSE <p><strong><em>L</em></strong><strong><em>abor</em></strong> migration abroad has a significant impact on the socio-economic and demographic development of Ukraine. Therefore, awareness of the consequences of the pandemic for migration processes, taking into account the migration component in developing a strategy for overcoming the crisis is extremely important. The article focuses on finding the key answers to adequately respond to migration challenges. The question is: ‘How does the crisis affect the situation of migrants? How does the crisis affect the intensity and direction of migration flows? How will these changes affect the development of the Ukrainian economy and society?’ There is not enough data on the dynamics of modern international migration. Therefore, the review of the hypothetical migration situation, as well as the development of recommendations for possible policy solutions, are based not only on their analysis, but also on generalizing the effects of previous economic crises on migration processes, identification and extrapolation to modern realities of their essential characteristics.</p> <p>During the crisis, the demand for additional labor from abroad is declining, but this leads not so much to the return of migrants to their homeland, as to a decrease in emigration, but rather to its postponement. Not all countries and not all sectors of the economy are experiencing the crisis in the same way, so there is a flow of migrants from one area of employment to another, from the most affected by the crisis countries to more prosperous. It is not so much the power of migration flows that changes, but their direction and characteristics.</p> <p>The return of migrants to Ukraine has not become widespread, it is only temporary, moreover, if the economic situation in the country will deteriorate, and in the countries of destination economic recovery will be successful, labor migration may intensify. Given the continuing labor migration from Ukraine, the state should significantly intensify its efforts to protect the rights and interests of Ukrainian citizens abroad. It is necessary to ensure access of migrants to medical services, social assistance, unemployment benefits, etc., to intensify the negotiation process with the countries of residence of migrant workers. Particular attention needs to be paid to supporting the repatriation flow, which can help reduce the shortage of workers needed by the economy, to serve a faster way out of the crisis.</p> Olena Malynovska Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1-2 71 79 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.05 THE CRISIS IN THE HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEM OF CONTEMPORARY UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES <p><strong><em>The</em></strong> <strong><em>articl</em></strong><strong><em>e</em></strong> analyzes the state of the art in the Ukrainian higher education system and education reform during the post-Maidan period. Political, economic factors of university reform are examined in detail for an insight into the transformations over the last years. Special attention is paid to the close correlation between the institutional dynamics of higher education and political factors – the ideology of reform and the government policy in higher education, the political line-up in the parliament and MPs’ views on education and research. The author finds that modernization in higher education during this period was largely correlated with the dynamics of the political transformation of the government.</p> <p>Two periods in university policy are singled out: the reform period (from mid-2014 to mid-2016) and the stabilization period (2016–2019). The author elicits that the current crisis in the Ukrainian higher education system is caused by the attempt to implement neoliberal approaches toward university policy, while failing to address and even exacerbating unresolved post-Soviet problems. The decline in the quality of higher education has a negative impact on Ukraine's economic competitiveness, the reproduction of the nation's intellectual resources and human capital, as well as social cohesion. It may also trigger new humanitarian security challenges.</p> <p>In the second part of the article, the author focuses on the macroeconomic conditions for the development of higher education in 2014–2019, the dynamics of public funding and the structure of education expenditures. The analysis finds that during this period, the share of higher education expenditures in the structure of total public expenditures also decreased, and the rationale of the government was motivated by neoliberal approaches.</p> <p>Particular attention is paid to the analysis of science and research funding in Ukraine. Currently, academic research is in deep crisis, and the system of public funding of Research and Development is inefficient. University research remains underfunded, which results in the further deterioration of the already low research and innovation capacity of national universities. The level of public funding for science in 2014–2019 was the lowest in twenty years and amounted to 0.2–0.25 % of GDP, which did not cover even the minimum needs of the industry. The critical state of affairs in science and research is potentially a national security challenge, as it undermines opportunities for the technological modernization of the national economy, the development of innovative industries, and contributes to the leaking of intellectual resources from Ukraine.</p> Viktor Pashkov Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1-2 80 93 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.06 A CONCEPTUAL APPARATUS FOR THE FIELD OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC SECURITY: AN UPDATED VIEW <p><strong><em>The</em></strong> <strong><em>author</em></strong> argues that the theory of national economic security is on the rise again and the qualitatively new phase of its development will be characterized by an increase of scientific and applied interest to various aspects of this field.</p> <p>This trend is consistent with the escalation of internal and external threats to socio-economic stability in major countries, the growing turbulence in the global economy, intensified global competition for natural resources and human capital and the emergence of new types of threats to national economic security, including environmental crises, uncontrolled migration and the coronavirus pandemic.</p> <p>In the near future, the scientific community will face a number of important research tasks, including the need to shape an updated methodological base, verify acquired knowledge and outline new research priorities. These tasks will be difficult to complete without a set of comprehensive definitions in the field of national economic security.</p> <p>The ongoing capsulation of scientific schools and their gravitation toward their own conceptual frameworks is a serious problem for the institutionalization and development of national economic security as an independent scientific discipline. This problem makes it impossible to create a common methodological framework for the discipline and undermines constructive scientific discussion between representatives of different scientific schools in this field.</p> <p>The author attempts to streamline the conceptual apparatus to solve the aforementioned problem. The scholarship of several scientific schools and prominent experts is analyzed to identify and systematize the most important terms and their definitions within the field of national economic security. Based on the data obtained a number of comprehensive and coherent definitions is introduced.</p> <p>The current stage of the evolution of national economic security is characterized by a weakening of neoliberal ideas and an increased impact of economic concepts within neorealism in the scientific community. These developments need to be reflected in the conceptual apparatus of this discipline. In this regard, the system of current basic definitions requires a significant update.</p> Aleksy Moldowan Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1-2 94 105 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.07 PRIORITY DIRECTIONS OF ECONOMIC COOPERATION BETWEEN UKRAINE AND THE USA IN THE HIGH-TECH SPHERE <p><strong><em>Ukraine</em></strong><strong><em>’</em></strong><strong><em>s</em></strong> international economic cooperation with other countries is becoming a determining factor in providing national security, in particular, in the political, military and economic spheres. This is manifested in such areas as the equipping of the Armed Forces and other components, the implementation of national weapons production projects and the export of Ukrainian weapons.</p> <p>The Russian Federation's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 led not only to the cessation of Ukrainian-Russian high-technical cooperation, but also transformed Russia from a competitor in the market of weapons of mass destruction into an overt enemy of the Ukrainian state, which compelled Ukraine to start looking for a new model of behavior in the market.</p> <p>Given that both Ukraine and the Russian Federation operate largely in the same segment the weapons market, Ukraine would be able to move from this segment dominated by our main competitor only with the support of our strategic partners and international sanctions policy against the RF because of its aggression against Ukraine.</p> <p>The possibility of using high-technical cooperation between Ukraine and the USA as an instrument of displacement of the Russian Federation from the world market of weapons-equipped vehicles is substantiated. It is proved that US interest in the implementation of sanctions imposed by the Russian Federation and the prevention of Russian weapons in the zone of conflict through third countries can be a powerful impetus for the development of Ukrainian-American cooperation in the high-tech sphere.</p> <p>Cooperation in traditional industries such as transport aircraft building, marine shipbuilding and turbine construction, rocket engineering, which are predominantly state-owned and not traded on stock markets, requires additional attention from the state to attract US investment and assistance. Variants of development of these basic branches industries have been addressed in numerous research papers.</p> <p>At the same time, other areas of cooperation deserve a greater attention. Priority, in our opinion, should be given to strategic materials for manufacturing and energy sector; electronics and communications industry.</p> <p>The article discusses ways to enhance military technology cooperation in a manner that would better reflect both parties’ strategic interests and argues that a deeper understanding of these interests will help attract investment into the domestic industrial sector.</p> Vitaliу Begma Volodymyr Shemаyev Denis Radov Polina Tolok Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1-2 106 112 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.08 THE RISE OF CHINA: IMPACT ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY <p><strong><em>The</em></strong> <strong><em>article</em></strong> examines manifestations of China’s rise and the attendant risks for the international security system.</p> <p>The author draws on a set of key approaches to measuring state power in his analysis of China’s hard and soft power as well as its structural capabilities. It has been demonstrated that China is closing the gap on the USA on key power indicators – the economic capabilities and military resources. However, a number of factors are slowing down its progress. With regard to the structural power, soft power and potential to engage allies the USA continues to hold significant advantages.</p> <p>China’s hegemonic aspirations bring about considerable structural transformations into international politics and impact international security. Redistribution of power and influence would reconfigure alliances, and impose new limitations on the actions and expectations of states. The rise of China and growing tensions between China and the USA would cause a complex and large-scale impact on the security of not only those two states, but the rest of the world as well. At both global and bilateral levels, security institutions and structures will undergo changes.</p> <p>The rise of bipolarity will escalate the standoff. The USA and China may become hostages to Thucydides Trap, whereby steps to maximize one’s security will lead to a greater threat – and eventually to a devastating conflict – as the other party will also try to reciprocate. China's rise may also pose a security dilemma for potential allies of both countries, weaken international institutions of cooperation and security, and engender a deep crisis of confidence.</p> <p>Scenarios of how the system of international security could respond are examined from the perspective of a security dilemma, power transition theory, and hegemonic stability theory. While both theories view the situation as challenging, they differ in their analysis of the sources and scale of risks.</p> Mykola Kapitonenko Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1-2 113 119 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.09 FROM SUN TZU TO MODERN SECRET WARS: GENESIS OF THE HYBRID WARFARE ARSENAL <p><strong>Вєдєнєєв</strong> <strong>Д.</strong> <strong>В.,</strong> <strong>С</strong><strong>е</strong><strong>м</strong><strong>еню</strong><strong>к</strong> <strong>О.</strong> <strong>Г</strong><strong>.</strong></p> <p>Формування концептуальних та функціональних передумов гібридної конфліктності як загрози національній безпеці України: ретроспективний аналіз: монографія. Київ : ДП «ІНФОТЕХ», 2020. 274 с.</p> Volodymyr Palyvoda Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1-2 120 123 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.10