Strategic Panorama Published by the National Institute for Strategic Studies the Strategic Panorama is an academic specialized publication in political sciences The National Institute for Strategic Studies en-US Strategic Panorama 2616-9460 THE EXPERIENCE OF GERMAN REUNIFICATION: LESSONS FOR UKRAINE IN THE CONTEXT OF PROSPECTIVE REINTEGRATION <p><strong>The article </strong>analyzes the experience of German reintegration after the FRG (West Germany) and the GDR (East Germany) were reunified in 1990. The analysis is focused on the process of state and national reconciliation.</p> <p>In the unified Germany, fundamental changes in the political and legal systems as well as social and economic models have been implemented due to its comprehensive policy of integration. The transition to a democratic system of governance required political and legal institutional reforms. In particular, a lustration policy was implemented to establish new state bodies, including law enforcement, security, judicial and others, and support their institutional restructuring.</p> <p>The policy of transitional justice in Germany ensured prosecutions for crimes and human rights violations during the GDR regime, compensations and reparations to the regime’s victims, truth-seeking, fact-finding and restoring justice. These multi-purpose measures have also led to crucial changes in the mentality of German society.</p> <p>The politics of memory and truth-seeking mechanisms have played a pivotal role in the willingness of German society to acknowledge and overcome the totalitarian and authoritarian past.</p> <p>The article emphasizes the importance of a strong democratic transformation as well as economic growth and social development in the successful reintegration of Germany. Despite the fact that the country’s reunification has had a positive effect, there are still some negative trends and noticeable differences between East and West Germany.</p> <p>The main purpose of the study is to assess the prospects for integration in Ukraine based on an analysis of Germany’s case of successful transformation and reunification. The findings indicate that the experience of German reunification and democratic transition contains a number of effective mechanisms, measures and practices that can be adapted in Ukraine for the future reintegration of the temporarily occupied territories.</p> Ganna Palii Copyright (c) 2022-07-06 2022-07-06 1 5 17 10.53679/2616-9460.1.2022.01 PERSONIFICATION AS A STRATEGY OF HISTORICAL POLICY IN UKRAINE <p><strong>This article</strong> analyzes personification as a historical policy strategy, which consists in the memorialization of certain historical and cultural figures. The relevance of this analysis is determined by the dominance of this strategy in modern historical policy as well as its popularity among various policy actors in Ukraine at different levels of executive power. At the same time, the choice of this strategy is usually not substantiated in official documents, which entails that conclusions can be drawn mostly based on policy results, retrospectively. The author outlines the genesis of personification traditions in Ukraine, formed within the frameworks of citizen, activist and patriarchal types of political culture. Ukraine’s inclusion into imperial entities such as the Russian Empire and the USSR led to a significant impact of imperial memory policy on the traditions and formats of commemoration in Ukraine. The study focuses on the phenomenon of “vozhdism” (leaderism) and the formation of the Soviet official pantheon. The author attempts to define the concept of pantheon as an imaginary set of iconic figures of history and culture, recognized as worthy of homage in the civic rituals of common commemoration. There is a correlation between the functions of the national pantheon and the choices of figures made as well as the appropriate vocabulary required. This correlation is illustrated through perceptions of heroes, which often become an instrument of ideological mobilization. Modern historiography offers an alternative understanding of heroes, with an emphasis on cultural, ethical and academic leadership. This understanding is increasingly influencing the formation of historical policy, particularly in Ukraine. It is also promising to interpret heroes as integrators, especially given the challenge of consolidation facing historical policy in Ukraine. The findings suggest that personification is neither a universal nor a self-evident tool for achieving this goal. There are other promising strategies focusing on events (“eventfulness”) and processes (“procedurality”).</p> Olha Mykhailova Copyright (c) 2022-07-06 2022-07-06 1 18 25 10.53679/2616-9460.1.2022.02 ELECTRONIC VOTING SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION IN UKRAINE: LEGAL REGULATION AND CURRENT SITUATION <p><strong>The article</strong> examines the concept of electronic voting and<em> counting technologies as well as their increasing use around the </em>world. E-<em>voting is viewed as a mechanism for expressing the will of the people by electronic means and as an automated process of counting votes (without mediation), which is designed to simplify the voting procedure and potentially increase voter turnout.</em> Electronic voting is featured in the article as one of tools for e-democracy. European legal standards for electronic voting are analyzed based on the experience accumulated by the member states of the Council of Europe that have used electronic voting in recent years and the lessons learned.</p> <p>The potential and prospects of e-voting system implementation for Ukrainian citizens are discussed in light of the steps taken by the Ukrainian authorities to create preconditions for the introduction of the electronic voting system, legislative initiatives and the existing legal framework that can be used for further legal support of electronic voting in Ukraine. Special attention is paid to the role and influence of the main stakeholders on the process of digitalizing elections. The introduction of a novel element into the electoral process has predictably provoked widespread debates about the benefits and risks of electronic voting in the short and long run.</p> <p>In conclusion, domestic legislation and practice in the field of e-voting are generalized and recommendations are given on the prospects for the implementation of electronic voting in Ukraine. Due to the complexity of e-voting implementation, it is limited to pilot testing at present. Based on the experience of other countries, it has been determined that electronic voting should be used in parallel with the traditional expression of will. The introduction of new voting technologies should be preceded by the comprehensive and extended preparation for the implementation in terms of the following areas of public policy: technological, legal, educational and communicative.</p> Olena Tokar-Ostapenko Copyright (c) 2022 2022-07-06 2022-07-06 1 26 41 10.53679/2616-9460.1.2022.03 THEORETICAL APPROACHES TO PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS IN TERMS OF NATIONAL SECURITY <p><strong>The article</strong> reviews the research on public-private partnerships and singles out their features pertaining to national security.</p> <p>The purpose of this article is to identify problematic issues of theoretical approaches to the formation of public-private partnerships in the realm of national security and ways to develop secure public-private partnerships in Ukraine, taking into account world best practices.</p> <p>The authors’ review of the Ukrainian research shows that there is currently a lack of in-depth and meaningful studies of theoretical and practical significance on this issue, which indicates the need for rethinking and updating the development of public-private partnerships given the requirement to implement national security priorities as set by the National Security Strategy of Ukraine.</p> <p>The nature of the threats to the national security and national interests of Ukraine requires a comprehensive study of partnerships between the state and the private sector in the basic areas of national security.</p> <p>National security is the result of collective actions of the state and society, while the mechanisms of public-private partnerships in the field of national security are not regulated by Ukrainian legislation. Creating a legal basis and institutional support are fundamental factors in forming an effective model of public-private partnership in the field of security.</p> <p>The introduction of public-private partnerships in the areas of the military, defense and military construction, state and public security, cybersecurity and civil protection requires significant state support.</p> <p>Furthermore, the non-governmental (private) security sector should become an integral part of the national security system of Ukraine.</p> <p>The authors develop proposals for the formation of an effective system of public-private partnership for the purposes of national security. First and foremost, these include the improvement of the legal framework for the development of public-private partnership and the joint development of specific measures.</p> Oksana Markieieva Bronislav Rozvadovskyi Copyright (c) 2022-07-06 2022-07-06 1 42 50 10.53679/2616-9460.1.2022.04 NUCLEAR MISSILE PROGRAMS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION: HISTORY AND MODERNITY <p><strong>The formation</strong> and development of Russia’s nuclear missile programs is of great scientific, theoretical and practical importance in modern political science in view of the aggravation of international relations involving the Russian Federation, which is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. The Russian Federation has the second largest nuclear missile stockpile and the political doctrine of this state declares the possibility of their use, which poses a threat to global peace and the existence of humankind in general. Given the above challenges, the purpose of this article is to analyze the formation and stages of development of Russia’s nuclear missile programs in order to understand the political nature of these processes and prospects for the use of this type of weapon. The article uses historical and political science research methods, with the primary emphasis on the methods of historical reconstruction and analytical interpretation. The article examines the formation of Russian nuclear missile programs at various historical stages. The author breaks down the development of the Russian nuclear missile programs and characterizes each period. This breakdown covers three stages: 1)&nbsp;1940s&nbsp;–&nbsp;1991, when nuclear missile programs were established; 2)&nbsp;1991–2014, when nuclear missile programs carried a primarily defensive function; 3)&nbsp;2014&nbsp;– to the present, when nuclear missile programs are used to politically influence Western countries in order to consolidate the annexed territories. The author proves that the distinctive practical features of the current Russian nuclear missile programs include the increase of quantitative and qualitative indicators of nuclear missile capability, as well as the use of these programs in foreign policy positioning and influencing international processes.</p> Viacheslav Myronenko Copyright (c) 2022-07-06 2022-07-06 1 51 58 10.53679/2616-9460.1.2022.05 AFRICA: UKRAINIAN INTERESTS VS RUSSIAN INFLUENCE <p><strong>The article</strong> examines the political trends in the African region in the context of Ukraine's national security, and provides recommendations to improve the situation. According to the latest version of Ukraine’s National Security Strategy, the priority in the African region has been placed on diversifying markets and strengthening Ukraine’s political support in the face of Russian aggression. A significant threat is the growing presence of the Russian Federation in the African region with its extensive usage of both force and soft power tools, which was particularly evident at the Russia-Africa summit in October&nbsp;2019 and the rapid spread of demand for the Russian “Sputnik&nbsp;V” vaccine against COVID-19 in 2021. Another related issue is the low level of support for Ukraine’s declarations in the UN&nbsp;General Assembly condemning human rights violations in occupied Crimea. The UN vote on occupied Crimea is one of the main factors in assessing relations with African governments, which Russian experts clearly point out. This reality highlights the need to increase Ukraine’s diplomatic presence and political weight in the African region in order to better contain the influence of the Russian Federation. Another important task is to monitor the destructive activities of the Russian Federation often aimed at fueling chaos, which could encourage local governments to establish closer bilateral relations with Moscow. At times, Russian policy has gone as far as supporting military coups that help to increase the level of Russian military and political presence in some states (for example, the cases of Mali in May&nbsp;2021 and Sudan in October&nbsp;2021).Strengthening the diplomatic level of representation in the region is a priority of Ukrainian foreign policy. In addition, the separation of economic and military-political factors is a problem for Ukraine. Trade is developing mostly with the stable countries of the eastern and southern parts of Africa, while the turbulent landscape of the west and center (except Nigeria) is poorly covered by the activities of Ukrainian enterprises. However, Ukrainian peacekeeping contingents have been active in these countries for a long time (primarily in the DRC).</p> Yurii Oliinyk Copyright (c) 2022-07-06 2022-07-06 1 59 65 10.53679/2616-9460.1.2022.06 ON HYBRID WARFARE, WITHOUT MYSTIFICATION OR CONSPIRACY <p>ON HYBRID WARFARE, WITHOUT MYSTIFICATION OR CONSPIRACY</p> Volodymyr Palyvoda Copyright (c) 2022-07-06 2022-07-06 1 66 69 10.53679/2616-9460.1.2022.07 DESTABILIZING EUROPE: RUSSIA’S HYBRID WARFARE <p><strong><em>The</em></strong> <strong><em>E</em></strong><strong><em>uropean</em></strong> Union is in a political and security crisis. The crisis tends to become existential, which undermines the future of the EU as an integration project. The conflict of values between liberal democracy and authoritarianism is becoming an important factor in international security.</p> <p>Negative current trends in the international security environment increase risks for the EU. In its foreign policy the EU does not demonstrate the ability to speak with one voice. It does not support EU’s ambition to be a global international actor. Within the EU, centrifugal tendencies and Euroscepticism appear to be gaining ground. Among the destructive external and internal factors affecting European security, the hybrid threat posed by Moscow’s ambitious plans and aggressive actions is at the forefront. These actions are aimed at undermining democracies, international solidarity and security. Russia is systematically acting to destabilize the EU, using a set of means of destructive influence, trying to undermine European unity both externally and internally.</p> <p>Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, operations in Syria and Libya, interference in domestic processes in the EU, etc., are exacerbating destructive trends in the European security environment. In this con- text, the EU faces the need to increase its resilience, as a tool to deter destructive actions of the Russian Federation and a means to mitigate their effect.</p> <p>The purpose of the article is to analyze the causes and consequences of Russia’s &nbsp;hybrid influence against the EU, plus to identify the means of Russia’s destructive impact, such as the spread of misinformation, active special operations, energy pressure, etc.</p> <p>The article examines the imperatives of Russian foreign policy, the impact of the value crisis on the European project and its future, as well as obstacles to strategic dialogue between the EU and Russia.</p> <p>Europe returns to searching for its collective European identity, discussing revitalization of the global European narrative. Maintaining a system of liberal democratic values is a key precondition for the future of the EU in order to avoid the risk of disintegration of the European Union.</p> <p>Sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, its national security could be guaranteed only by full-fledged integration into the European political, economic and security space. Europe’s hesitations regarding the European perspective for Ukraine, which arise under pressure from the Kremlin and internal contradictions in the EU, negatively affect the security environment &nbsp;in Europe.</p> Borys Parakhonsky Galina Yavorska Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1 5 29 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.01 ESSENTIAL FEATURES AND FUNCTIONAL COMPONENTS OF MODERN UNCONVENTIONAL (HYBRID) CONFLICT <p><strong><em>I</em></strong><strong><em>n</em></strong> <strong><em>the</em></strong> <strong><em>article </em></strong>the authors argue that the strategy and arsenal of hybrid (asymmetrical, unconventional) warfare in the contemporary world are fundamentally based on the qualitative changes that took place at the turn of the XXI century as a result of radical changes in the balance of power in the international arena, chaos in international relations, the development of new types of lethal and non-lethal weapons, new technologies of constructing and dismantling social communities with predetermined characteristics. These changes involved the conceptual framework, structure, strategy and tactics, forms and methods of the military and political confrontation between modern states and their blocks, as well as between states and non-governmental organisations.</p> <p>The authors identify the essential features and functional components of hybrid warfare, such as its latency phases; the remote undermining of national defense capabilities by non-military and non-contact means; breaching the international law of war; the integrated use of military methods as well as specific means of non-military, diplomatic, financial and economic, humanitarian pressure on a victim state. They also include the extensive use of anti-government groups and movements; illegal armed groups, separatists, irredentists, radical ethnic and religious groups, extremist organizations, and artificially constructed destructive groups; the privileged role of intelligence services, special operations forces and their use for engineering a powerful anti-government infrastructure designed to destabilize the legitimate state system; the priority role of targeted influence on public opinion through the extensive use of methods of information and psychological warfare and cyberwarfare.</p> Dmytro Viedienieiev Oleksandr Semeniuk Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1 30 47 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.02 TRANSNISTRIAN SETTLEMENT: UKRAINE’S CONTRIBUTION AND EXPERIENCE FOR DEOCUPATION OF DONBAS <p><strong><em>The</em></strong> <strong><em>article</em></strong> addresses the role of Ukraine in the Transnistrian settlement. The author analyses its peacekeeping experience and plans for further steps in the light of Ukraine's national interests in the context of Russia's ongoing aggression. Other countries’ roles as participants in the peace process are also considered.</p> <p>This conflict should not be classified as an interethnic or interfaith one, just as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is a geopolitical confrontation with a minor ethnic component. The positions of the parties do not differ fundamentally on ethnic or confessional grounds, but consist in worldview differences, geopolitical orientation of elites and the population of the two banks of the Dniester.</p> <p>Russia, which had been a de facto participant in the hot phase of the conflict, managed to take over the role of the mediator. Ukraine and Moldova agreed on the legal personality of the Transnistrian occupation authorities. Countries where separatist conflicts have been provoked by external forces cannot agree to negotiate directly with the occupation administrations of the ‘separatist’ areas. They should negotiate directly with the independent players who have provoked, provided this conflict and are able to make &nbsp;decisions.</p> <p>It is important to conduct an effective awareness-rising campaign in Transnistria and the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, create highly professional alternative media and a high-quality information product. Russia's continued military presence in Transnistria is becoming an additional security threat to Ukraine and the Black Sea region.</p> <p>The ‘peacekeeping’ mechanism needs to be reformatted and internationalized by withdrawing the Russian contingent and deploying the International Civilian Observer Mission. Such operations should be carried out either with the participation of contingents of exclusively neutral countries, or with multinational contingents if possible, which will guarantee their impartiality. Findings of the present study may be used as the groundwork for formulating Ukraine’s strategy of countering the Russian aggression and retrieving the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.</p> Ihor Lossovskyi Copyright (c) 2021-12-07 2021-12-07 1 48 64 10.53679/2616-9460.1-2.2021.03